Posts Tagged ‘Bullshit’

Silly Season in Pakistan

April 5, 2017

By Anjum Altaf

The last shred of doubt regarding the reality of climate change should have been removed by the unnaturally early arrival of the silly season. One warming outcome has seen the hot-air balloon of the Pakistani economy lifting off into the stratosphere without anyone ever noticing what happened.

First there was the upward draft in the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post that removed the veil from the transformation we had failed to observe. Not wanting to leave anything to our blinkered visions, the WSJ blared it all out in one breathless headline: “Pakistan’s Middle Class Soars as Stability Returns: Consumer spending rockets as poverty shrinks, terrorism drops and democracy holds.”

Before the excitement could die down and lest a couple of eyebrows be raised, the redoubtable Economist added the gravity of its authoritative voice with an article titled “Pakistan confronts something unfamiliar: optimism” reiterating thereby that we were too befogged to see what was happening before our eyes.

Leave aside the fact that the land wouldn’t know real pessimism if it were staring it in the face, populated largely, as it is, with optimists of which one can count three types. First, those who can only be called ‘resigned optimists’ who subscribe to the Allah maalik hai philosophy that everything would come good in the end because we are God’s chosen people. And who can quarrel with them given that the nation has survived the most incredible stupidities that any ruling class can visit on a country.

Second, the ‘oppositional optimists’ who indulge in temporary pessimism only because it is not their charioteer that is leading the charge. Give a chance to the theocrats or the autocrats or the bureaucrats or the cricket bats and watch how we emerge roaring as the tiger of Asia if not of the entire world.

Third, the ‘incorrigible optimists’ who really need no excuse to feel positive. After soberly recalling all the gross errors committed over the past seventy years and recounting all the obvious but unfortunately missed chances, he or she arrives inevitably at the cheerful “I remain staunchly optimistic” conclusion. For this set, optimism need not be based on any evidence; it is more a genetic trait like green eyes – one is just born so. Press them a bit and they will pluck anything out of the air as the reason for their buoyancy – a very youthful population would do as well as anything else. Never mind we haven’t invested a penny in potty training.

For the EconomistA cricket match and an obscure administrative reform” in FATA are sufficient signs for the great leap forward. Add to that the handy standby: “Pakistan’s stock market has risen faster than any other in Asia over the past 12 months, by a heady 50%.” Heady, indeed. For years the Economist has been warning of dreaded bubbles underlying the heady rise of the Chinese stock market but no such qualms are warranted in the case of Pakistan even as its own regulator cracks down on malpractices in the exchange. It is all a matter of the balloon one wishes to float.

One does wonder though what caused the Economist to so radically change its story. It was just a couple of months back that it posted its last roundup of the Pakistani economy under the title “Roads to nowhere: Pakistan’s misguided obsession with infrastructure” with the despairing subtitle “The government is building more airports, roads and railways, even though the existing ones are underused.” That article labeled our last great economic corridor, the Lahore-Islamabad motorway, a “$1.2bn white elephant” and compared the Prime Minister to Sher Shah Suri. It ended with dripping sarcasm: “the railways minister, recently admitted to parliament that the country would not be getting a bullet train after all. “When we asked the Chinese about it, they laughed at us,” he said.”

The Economist clearly doesn’t expect much of Pakistanis not least to pay attention to what they read. The conclusion to its suddenly upbeat and optimistic gushing notes with genuine surprize: “For Pakistan, however, even to be debating the subject is encouraging.”  

Just to prove wrong the charge that Pakistanis are unable to recognize optimism when they see it a motley set of experts jumped into the fray adding colour to the silly season. Some excoriated the detractors for failing to appreciate the economic takeoff. Others claimed we were already much richer than we believed. Yet others asserted poverty was a thing of the past. I can only presume the malnutritioned children (nearly half of all children in the country) must be so because their parents have better things to do with their wealth much as the unemployment in the Great Depression had been an outcome of the voluntary trade- off between work and leisure.

Wake up Pakistan: feudalism is dead, we are all urban now, poverty is licked, every city is a growling tiger cub, and the Chinese are coming. The writing is on the wall. “Yes, how many times can a man turn his head / Pretending he just doesn’t see? / The answer my friend is blowin’ in the wind / The answer is blowin’ in the wind.”

Think what you may. It is the silly season. It is the season for feeling good. March madness has barely ended. April is the kindest month in our part of the world. But still, why the obsession with the economy? Why not just fly a kite?

This opinion appeared in The News on April 4, 2017 and is reproduced here with permission of the author. See related article Economic Bullshit.

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Economic Bullshit

March 6, 2017

By Anjum Altaf

A lovely little book came out in 2005 titled On Bullshit. Written by a professor of philosophy at Princeton, it remained a bestseller for months. Its principal message was that “bullshit is a greater enemy of the truth than lies” because “Liars at least acknowledge that it matters what is true.” Bullshitters, on the other hand, convey impressions without being concerned about whether anything at all is true. They quietly change the rules governing their end of the conversation so that claims about truth and falsity are irrelevant.”

I recalled the book after reading two articles within a week talking up the Pakistani economy in the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. Both employed the classic bullshitter’s gambit of throwing out random facts to convey a favorable impression without caring in the least whether the inferences were in any way supported by fact or argument. Had a PR person been paid to write these articles, he or she couldn’t have done a better job.

At the heart of both articles is the blinding vision of a middle class ready to rocket the Pakistani economy into the stratosphere. The WSJ article summarizes its thesis in its title: “Pakistan’s Middle Class Soars as Stability Returns: Consumer spending rockets as poverty shrinks, terrorism drops and democracy holds.” The title of the WP article is more bland –  “Beyond the headlines of terrorism, Pakistan’s economy is on the rise” – but its argument is the same.

Observe how the impression is constructed. First the numbers – 38% of the country is middle class, while a further 4% is upper class. That’s a combined 84 million people.” Then a true fact which means nothing by itself: This size is “roughly equivalent to the entire populations of Germany or Turkey.” And then another less than relevant generalization: “A study by the OECD forecasts that the bulk of the growth in the middle class in the years ahead will come from Asia, which will account for two thirds of the global middle class by 2030.”

Comments culled from international agencies provide a favorable jumping-off point: “What’s more, Pakistan is winning plaudits from the International Monetary Fund, and its economy is forecast for a healthy 5.2 percent growth rate in 2017, according to the World Bank.” That’s enough to conclude that “As Pakistan turns a corner… Three key factors are driving Pakistan’s economic awakening: an improved security climate even despite the most recent attack, relative political stability, and a growing middle class. These three interlocking pieces are fueling Pakistan’s growth story.”

From here the autopilot takes over: “Robust middle classes are vital to healthy societies and growing economies, and Pakistan’s middle class may have reached a tipping point.” Throw in a couple of quotes by experts and the future becomes more than incandescent: “Pakistan’s consumer middle-class market could hit $1 trillion by 2030” and “middle classes are driving impressive 25 percent rates of return for large multinational consumer companies… middle-class growth is sparking increased production of cement, steel, automobiles and the like… one of the key reasons for current bullishness on Pakistan.”

Let us now subject this bullshit to a stool test. First, what does the size of the middle class have to do with anything? Does a population as big as Germany’s mean that a tipping point has been reached fueling Pakistan’s economic takeoff?

Consider several examples in comparison with Pakistan (population 200 million, income per capita $5,100). Singapore, with scarcely any natural resources, has a population of 5.8 million (less than that of Faisalabad) and a per capita income of $87,100. Ask how Singapore’s economy skyrocketed with a middle class that could not have exceeded 5.8 million? Or consider the tiny populations of Dubai and Abu Dhabi which have boomed in front of our eyes. South Korea and Pakistan had roughly the same per capita income in the 1950s (when Pakistan was billed as a model of development with a much smaller middle class). Today, the former with a population of 51 million has a per capita income of $37,900. Does this not suggest that the size of the middle class by itself has very little to do with economic growth? Very clearly it is economic policies and governance that matter much more.

The typical response to such examples is to blame overpopulation for the poverty in Pakistan. Now suddenly the large population has become the magic wand that will even make up for the absence of sound policies. The same fact can fuel very different stories depending on the occasion.

Second, even if the Pakistani middle class is 84 million strong how much purchasing power does it really have? Note that Pakistan’s per capita income of $5,100 is below poverty level income in the U.S.A. Add to that the phenomenon of inequality which is the major issue of the moment. The latest Oxfam numbers inform that in India just 57 individuals own more wealth than the bottom 70% of the population. Isn’t it likely that most of the wealth in Pakistan is concentrated in the hands of the 4% that comprise the upper class. If things were indeed so rosy for the middle class why would almost every member of it want to move to a stronger economy? Can’t they see that Pakistan has turned the corner?

Yes, of course, more cement and steel is being purchased but is it consumption per capita that is going up or simply a reflection that the population of Pakistan has skyrocketed – from 61 million in 1971 to 200 million today. Just keeping up with the additional needs (food, clothing, houses, schools, colleges, hospitals, roads, electricity, etc.) means that commodity sales would increase. And yes, many companies providing these commodities are profitable. But does one see foreign investment rushing into new projects? Even the Chinese have to be guaranteed exorbitant returns to be tempted. In fact, Pakistanis themselves are avoiding new investments preferring to put their money in land or buying property in the Middle East or parking cash in tax havens. Some are even shifting existing manufacturing capacity to foreign countries where costs of doing business are lower.

Ask the middle class if the skyrocketing economy is generating enough acceptable jobs to accommodate those entering the labor force every year let alone the poor who are still in a majority? Is that the reason why more and more people wish to leave to send back money for their families to consume and keep the bleeding economy on life support?

Snake-oil will continue to be sold and there will never be a shortage of buyers. Allah be praised.

This opinion appeared in Express Tribune on March 4, 2017 and is reproduced here with permission of the author.

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